“Robust abatement” only route for habitable planet


A new study has identified 5 million potential futures for humanity as it comes to grips with the impacts of climate change, identifying the only safe route to be immediate and aggressive carbon abatement.

The new Tufts University study used a computational climate change assessment model to better account for uncertainties in human activity and the atmosphere’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide levels, the researchers created a novel method for exploring the consequences of different climate change futures to better inform policy decisions.

The model used in the study accounts for uncertainties in human activity and climate by exploring millions of scenarios, some of which reveal pathways to a world where warming is limited to 2-degrees Celsius by the year 2100 – a goal most climate experts say is required for a “tolerable” future.

“Despite massive uncertainties in a multitude of sectors, human actions are still the driving factor in determining the long-term climate. Uncertainty is sometimes interpreted as an excuse for delaying action. Our research shows that uncertainty can be a solid reason to take immediate action,” said lead author Jonathan Lamontagne.

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