Report repudiates climate modelling


The recent report released by Brian Fischer detailing the extensive damage of Labor’s climate policy has been described as a ‘complete outlier’ when compared to 20 other similar modelling exercises, according to a new report released by The Australia Institute.

In an extensive comparison of 18 recent modelling reports and three similar treasury models of climate action in Australia concluded that the economic impacts of high ambition targets are very small to negligible.

“Brian Fisher’s latest model of climate costs was off-the-chart. It shows cost to GDP impacts that were five to ten times larger than every other economy-wide model, including those from Warwick McKibbin, Climateworks, ANU, CSIRO, Victoria University and three major reports from Commonwealth Treasury,” said Richie Merzian, Climate & Energy Program Director at the Australia Institute.

The key findings of the report include:

  • 10 economy-wide models show Australia can pursue higher ambition targets and continue to enjoy strong economic growth.

  • The impact of high ambition action on GDP growth is small to negligible, less than of 0.14 per annum percentage points compared to no action, and the difference is even smaller compared to low ambition action.

  • Brian Fisher’s claims regarding the GDP impact from more ambitious domestic emissions reductions were more than 10 times greater than the impact in comparable models.

  • 12 reports focusing on the electricity sector show the impacts of higher ambition targets reduce power costs, or result in a modest and manageable increase, including for 100% renewables.

“There is extensive literature on the cost of climate action in Australia including modelling from or commissioned by the Government. All 22 reports analysed show the cost of higher emission reduction targets is small, even when ignoring the benefits,” Mr Merizan said.

TAI’s full report can be found here

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